Bitcoin prepares to jump — changes expected in the crypto market

Bitcoin is once again attracting investors' attention, promising new records. Standard Chartered analysts, including Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research, predict a rapid rise in price to USD 120,000 in the second quarter of 2025 and USD 200,000 by the end of the year.

One of the main drivers of Bitcoin's growth is the change in investment flows, The Block writes. Capital that used to be invested in the United States assets, in particular government bonds, is gradually flowing to Bitcoin.

"U.S. Treasury term premium (which has a close correlation to BTC) is at a 12-year high", Kendrick noted.

This trend is confirmed by the analysis of trading activity. US investors are actively looking for alternative assets outside the US, which is supported by the rising premium on government bonds and the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs. Last week, Bitcoin-based ETFs recorded significant capital inflows, which indicates growing confidence in the cryptocurrency as a hedging tool.

Geopolitical changes and the impact of Trump

The recent decision by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to temporarily suspend tariffs has become a catalyst for increased interest in Bitcoin. Previously, the cryptocurrency often moved in unison with tech stocks, but now it is showing independent positive dynamics.

"The correlation breakdown and U.S. buying suggest that U.S. investors are seeking non-U.S. assets," Kendrick emphasized.

This gap in correlation coincided with active purchases of Bitcoin by large investors, or so-called "Whales" (wallets with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC). The "Whales" bought assets both during the fall, caused by tariff risks, and during the recovery phase associated with concerns about the independence of the Fed.

Bitcoin vs gold: The new hedging leader

Compared to gold, Bitcoin looks like a more attractive hedge against financial risks. While gold remains a stable asset in times of economic uncertainty, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it a more effective hedge.

Kendrick notes that the flow of liquidity is gradually shifting from gold back to Bitcoin, which is confirmed by the positive dynamics of the ETF.

"Whales" continue to accumulate Bitcoins, and the positive trend in ETFs shows the flow of liquidity from gold back into the first cryptocurrency," the analyst comments.

This trend may intensify due to the possible adoption of a stablecoin law in the United States, which will add legitimacy to the crypto market.

Institutional interest and future drivers

According to Kendrick's forecasts, the summer of 2025 will be a key period for Bitcoin. Institutional investors are likely to strengthen their positions, which is supported by the 13F reports due to be filed with the SEC in May. These reports may reveal significant infusions into Bitcoin, which will be an additional impetus for the price to rise.

In addition, the growing activity of Asian traders, who have also begun to actively buy Bitcoin, adds to the optimism. Analysis by time zone shows a synchronisation of interest between the American and Asian markets, which may indicate a global upward trend.

Forecast for 2025: USD 120,000 or 200,000

Standard Chartered analysts are confident that Bitcoin will update its historic high of USD 120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, and reach USD 200,000 by the end of the year. These forecasts are based on a combination of factors: growing institutional interest, capital redistribution, geopolitical changes, and legislative initiatives.

"Now is the best time to enter the market, as we see signs of an uptrend forming." Kendrick summarizes.

As a reminder, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, signed the order according to which the country would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

We also wrote about the impact of Trump on cryptocurrency.