Trade war, bitcoin and Trump — Financial Times forecast 2025
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Over the next 12 months, in 2025, they predict disappointment in artificial intelligence, risks to the bond market, a rise in the bitcoin exchange rate, and increased inflationary pressure due to the policies of US President-elect Donald Trump. In addition, Ukraine is expected to conclude a peace agreement with Russia.
This is stated in the traditional economic forecast of the Financial Times.
What awaits the world in 2025
Economic expectations are not very positive. This is due to the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States of America. Due to his unpredictable policies, a full-fledged trade war is predicted. To begin with, tariffs will be imposed on half of imports, including goods from the People's Republic of China. The rate could reach at least 10%.
On the other hand, experts believe that deflation (when the value of goods falls over a period of time) will lead to a decline in export prices in yuan. As a result, Beijing will be able to compensate for the imposed US tariffs, and local goods that cannot enter the US market will flood other international markets.
As for the Federal Reserve's interest rates, it will not be possible to end 2025 with lower rates, as inflationary pressures caused by Trump's policies will force the Fed to remain cautious. Unless there is a stock market crash, then shifts are possible.
Donald Trump is known as a supporter of cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular. Analysts are confident that his presidency will boost the coin's value. By 2025, the value could rise from $100,000 to $200,000. And this is far from the peak of bitcoin's capabilities.
Other expert forecasts for the coming year include:
- leading companies, such as Google, OpenAI, and Microsoft, will present AI agents that will perform digital tasks on users' orders;
- the bond market will not fall as the US avoids any possibility of a financial collapse;
- India's GDP will not overtake Japan's GDP, although this may happen in 2026;
- the share of electric vehicles will be a maximum of 22% of global car sales due to a slowdown in demand outside of China;
- Argentina may decide to lift currency restrictions;
- Warner Bros Discovery may be the next company to go through a sale and purchase transaction (after Paramount changed ownership).
As for the future of large tech companies in the short term (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla), they will remain leaders in 2025, but their growth will be limited by high capital investment costs.
What else should Ukrainians know
As a reminder, the second season of the cult South Korean TV series "Squid Game" was released on the Netflix streaming platform. However, the long-awaited debut was spoiled by a sharp drop in shares of companies, including Artist United Inc., Wysiwyg Studioc Co. and Dexter Studios Co.
We also wrote that Ukraine expects the dollar to rise to 47 UAH/USD by the end of 2025. At first, the US currency will exceed the psychological mark of UAH 42, and then it will gradually rise in price as the National Bank calculates the official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate.
