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The Hubble Telescope will inevitably fall to Earth — when
The Hubble Space Telescope has been operating in orbit for nearly 35 years. It is gradually losing altitude and may eventually reenter Earth's atmosphere uncontrollably. Although new calculations show that the risk to humans remains low, it is higher than NASA's threshold requirements.
IFLScience reports.
When could Hubble return to Earth?
Hubble is in a low Earth orbit and travels at over 28,000 km/h. Since its launch in 1990, it has made over 1.3 million scientific observations. Its data has helped refine the age of the universe to 13.8 billion years and confirm that cosmic expansion is accelerating.
However, over the years, the telescope has descended lower and lower due to resistance from the upper atmosphere. Previously, during service missions, astronauts used shuttles to raise it to a higher orbit, but this is no longer possible after the program's completion.
According to new estimates, the descent will continue until the telescope enters the atmosphere. Forecasts range widely: in an optimistic scenario, Hubble will last until 2040; in a pessimistic scenario, it may fall as early as 2029. The most likely year is 2033.
The problem is that the telescope was not designed for controlled deorbiting. This means that when it enters the atmosphere, some parts of the structure may not burn up completely and could reach the Earth's surface. Simulations suggest that the debris could scatter across a strip approximately 350–800 km long.
Although the risk assessments for humans remain low, they exceed NASA's acceptable standards. According to the average forecast, the probability of casualties ranges from 1 in 330 (significantly higher than the standard of 1 in 10,000) to 1 in 31,000. If the debris falls in densely populated areas, such as Macau, there could be two to four casualties, and at least one in Hong Kong or Singapore.
The study's authors believe that the estimates should be refined to account for solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and population forecasts. Otherwise, even the legendary Hubble mission could end in an undesirable incident if it falls uncontrollably.
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