Gold nears record — is the United States to blame or thank?
Gold could reach USD 4,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to a forecast by investment company Fidelity International, citing lower U.S. interest rates, a weaker USD, and steady demand from central banks. These factors are creating favorable conditions for the precious metal to rise in value.
Gold is an asset that reacts to economic and geopolitical changes, according to Bloomberg. According to forecasts of Fidelity International, the key drivers of price growth will be US monetary policy and global economic trends.
"We saw a clear path to a more dovish Federal Reserve policy," the company's fund manager, Jan Samson, noted.
He believes that the interest rate cut, which could begin soon, will make gold more attractive to investors. In addition, new trade tariffs, which are likely to be imposed by the United States, could slow the economy, forcing the Fed to act more leniently.
Additional factors are the growing budget deficits in the world and the stable demand for gold from central banks, which are actively replenishing reserves.
Current situation on the gold market
Gold is currently trading at around USD 3,324 an ounce, just below its all-time high of USD 3,500 in April 2025. The price has risen more than 25% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in international trade.
Jan Samson compares the current rally to the period from 2001 to 2011, when gold rose an average of 20% each year.
"The current growth is not excessive, and we see room for further upside. It gives reason to believe that the market has not yet peaked," he emphasized.
The role of the United States in the rise in the price of gold
The United States plays a key role in shaping the price of gold through its monetary policy and the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Here's how it works:
- Lower interest rates. Gold does not earn interest, so high U.S. Treasury yields make it less attractive. When the Fed lowers rates, the opportunity cost of owning gold falls, and demand increases.
- Weakening of the dollar. Since gold is traded in dollars, a weaker dollar increases its price. It also makes the metal more affordable for foreign buyers, which stimulates global demand.
- Budget deficit. The rise in U.S. government debt raises concerns about inflation. In such conditions, investors seek protection in "hard assets" such as gold, which are not depreciated by excessive currency issuance.
Samson also points to the change in Fed leadership in May 2026. The new chairman is likely to be more inclined to hawkish policies, which will support a rise in the price of gold.
Forecasts of other experts
Fidelity International's forecast coincides with Goldman Sachs's estimate, which also predicts a price increase to USD 4,000 per ounce. However, not all analysts are so optimistic. For example, Citigroup predicts a possible decline in prices due to a temporary stabilization of the economy. However, most experts agree that the long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to global instability.
Gold remains one of the most reliable assets in times of economic uncertainty. It protects against inflation, currency fluctuations, and political risks. Now, when the United States is facing challenges in the form of trade wars and rising debt, demand for gold is growing. Central banks, in particular China and India, are actively increasing gold reserves, which further supports the price. For investors, this may be a good time to enter the market.
"Gold is not only a protection of capital, but also an opportunity to make a profit in the long term," Samson added.
As a reminder, we told you that Singapore is becoming the new global gold storage hub as wealthy investors are actively moving their precious metals there. This trend is driven by geopolitical instability, economic turmoil, and rising gold prices, which are forcing them to seek safe havens for their assets.